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Vicksburg, Miss. – The Interagency Performance Evaluation Task
Force (IPET) reaffirmed today that the New Orleans-area risk maps
released on June 20, 2007, are correct. A data error discovered in
the draft technical supporting documentation released by IPET on
Nov. 7 raised questions about risk map accuracy for two sections of
New Orleans.
“The IPET Risk Team performed an exhaustive review over the weekend
of the IPET risk analyses and the products generated, and determined
that the inundation risk maps released in June are correct,” stated
Dr. Ed Link, the IPET director.
The June 2007 IPET risk maps showed a 5.5-foot flood risk reduction
for the conditions for the Lakeview (OM2) area and a 4.5-foot
reduction for the Hoey’s Basin (OM4) area as of June. The risk maps
were released prior to the release of background documentation in an
effort to help inform the public as soon as possible. IPET performed
a stringent review of the risk maps prior to release.
IPET released the interim draft version of Volume VIII – Engineering
and Operational Risk and Reliability Analysis on Nov. 7. This
interim draft volume presented the technical aspects used to
complete the IPET risk assessment of the New Orleans area. However,
a table in one of the Volume VIII appendices cited incorrect
elevation data for the two basins, which caused questioning about
the accuracy of the previously released risk maps.
The correct elevation data was used in the risk maps released in
June.
“IPET apologizes for any confusion or worries the questions about
risk map accuracy may have caused residents in the New Orleans
area,” Link said.
All IPET findings are peer reviewed by an External Review Panel of
national experts from the American Society of Civil Engineers and by
the National Academies - National Research Council Committee on New
Orleans Hurricane Protection Projects. The IPET interim draft risk
volume is being reviewed by these two panels of experts, and their
comments and suggestions will be addressed in the final version of
the IPET risk volume that will be released sometime in early 2008.
“IPET will continue to review the risk data, and we will inform our
partners if any changes or corrections are identified,” Link said.
“There will be some small changes made to new risk maps in the
future, but these will be small adjustments and not large shifts.
These minor adjustments will address wave runup, the impact of
pumping, and the interflow among adjacent sub-basins.
“Again, these will be very minor adjustments as modeling advances
are made and implemented to the risk process.”
The interim draft version of IPET Volume VIII contains the technical
documentation of the IPET risk process that was applied to assess
the hurricane protection system in southeast Louisiana. The IPET
risk results using this process were initially released in map form
on June 20 for pre-Katrina and current conditions as of June 2007.
Similar risk information products were generated for the planned
100-year Hurricane Protection System and released on Aug. 22 by the
Corps of Engineers’ New Orleans District. This information was
generated using the same risk process outlined in the interim draft
Volume VIII and are correct as well.
IPET was established by the commander of the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers and comprised more than 150 nationally recognized experts
from more than 50 different organizations (eight federal, state and
local government agencies; 25 universities and 23 private sector
firms).
IPET was specifically tasked with gathering and analyzing data to
answer five basic questions:
The System (what was the status of the protection system on August
29, 2005),
The Storm (what exact forces did Katrina put on the system),
The Performance (how did the system respond),
The Consequences (understanding the flooding and the losses – both
economic and loss of life), and
The Risk (what is the risk and reliability of the protection
system).
More than 4,300 documents, including IPET reports, data, and
research information are available on the public Web site, https://IPET.wes.army.mil.
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